We cut our target by $11 to $55 due to: 1) decent 1Q21 results - though consensus seemed to have built-in significant bad news -- with revenue down 18% Y/Y and EPS $0.04 lower Y/Y to $1.05; 2) considerably lower FY 22 revenue guidance from a $10.3b-$10.5b range to a $9.6b-$9.9b range, midpoint implying a Y/Y revenue decline of 7%, vs. 1% growth previously; 2) a 20% plunge in GMV Y/Y, which is problematic even considering the tough Y/Y comparison; 3) net debt expanded from $2.1b to $3.2b, now 10% of market cap; 4) more attractive valuation, with a 12.2x fwd. P/E, a post-Covid low, although we continue to see downside risk in the fundamentals and the shares as fairly valued. Our target is a product of our '23 EPS forecast of $4.09, now $0.51 lower, and a 13.5x P/E (trailing 6-month mean, less 3% due to $3.2B in net debt). Revenue of $2.48B fell 18% Y/Y but beat consensus by $21M; EPS of $1.05, down 4% Y/Y, beat by $0.02. We cut our EPS forecasts for '22 by $0.54 to $3.73 and for '24 by $0.40 to $4.63.
-- Earnings Flash (AQS) AEQUUS PHARMACEUTICALS Repor... |
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